Maada Bio’s 2023 playbook for electoral victory

Mahmoud Tim Kargbo: Sierra Leone Telegraph: 28 March 2021:

It appears President Julius Maada Bio has drawn up his victory plan for 2023, and it looks like an enhanced version of the successful plan laid out by his former campaign manager Alie Kabbah in 2018.  But this time around, it seems Bio has figured out that he does not need Alie Kabba to win.  In his place, he’s got very ineffective democratic institutions, an inept main opposition party Parliamentarians and other fantastically corrupt politicians within the APC to do his bidding.  He couldn’t have asked for a better political environment.

Bio knows that due to the excessive economic hardship in the country, he is very unpopular and that his Presidency has been nothing but an addition to his predecessor who failed to delivered his manifesto. Even if he should ‘win’ another term in office, he still would have nothing to show for it  – a fact relayed by JJ Saffa, the current Minister of Finance, when he said that another government and three Finance Ministers, after him, will not be able to fix the Sierra Leone, Economy.

A key objective of the Bio 2023 election Plan is to ‘convincingly’ win at the first round by at least 56% of the popular vote – And to also capture a commanding lead in the number of Parliamentary seats.  To do this, Maada Bio has to buy legitimacy within the International Community and the sub-region.  He’s got to do so very early in the game – this explains why he will spare nothing to get the ‘Mid-term Census’ done before June 2021.

Ostensibly, he can claim that he has very strong numbers to beat the opposition at the polls. It is a ‘smart tactics’ that must be combated not only in the trenches, but also at an intellectual level.  Thus far, the main opposition is light years away in developing a  strategy to combat this onslaught. We will provide pointers in subsequent sections of this column to discredit this hoax.

Meanwhile, between the SLPP Secretariat, Statistics SL  and NaCRA – opposition members are saying  the Census data will be sexed up to show a huge voter count in both the South and East of the country. To them, new Districts and Constituencies will be created at the expense of the North and North West.  It must be pointed out that the main opposition is hopelessly divided in key Districts in these areas, such as Port Loko and Kambia Districts.

There is a high likelihood that the SLPP will be able to come off with moderately strong numbers to compliment what some people believe would be the inflated figures from the South, but not necessarily enough to win the said Districts.

Kono remains a toss up due to Coalition for Change (C4C) presence.  We anticipate that C4C will continue to hold sway over Kono for a few more election cycles.  Still, Maada Bio will be faced with a shortfall to get 56%.  And that’s where the battle for the Western Area will lead to bloodshed.

Tactically, for all we know about the SLPP blueprint for victory, Bio goes with the conviction that  troop formation, distribution of arms/artillery and deployment of  internal security will be watertight at the Southern front and Western Seacoast;  yet there are major gaps in his plans.  The plan does not think too far ahead and that will be its undoing.

Even though the SLPP go largely uncontested in the South and East of the country, Bio underestimates:  the level of voter dissatisfaction and the devastating effects of poverty in the deep South, especially in Bo, where an educated and enlightened youth demographic is questioning the national political structure and even the progressive movement.

From bye elections violent experience, it appears many stakeholders in the SLPP are trapped in the time warp of 1996 – the war never ended for them; they paid no price for blood spilled on the battlefield, nor for tears shed by mothers in the still of the night.

Violence, intimidation and brute force is all they know.  For which reason, it will be a mistake for the APC to match up the living corpse Samura Kamara as a counter force to Maada Bio in 2023.

Kamara lacks the oratory power and inspiration to lead a defiant ‘grassroots’ to challenge the bulldozing power, intimidation and expected mal-practices at nightfall after the polls close – the critical hours in which real battles are fought to determine the winner.

8 Comments

  1. Ladies and gentlemen. Let’s wait and see who the next APC flagbearer and leader will be. The choice of the next APC leader will signal which party will win the presidential election in 2023. For now, President Bio is the president of Sierra Leone. Until the elections, we will continue to hold him into account for all the political, financial, social and economic woes affecting the country. If the APC makes the right leadership choice, all the democratic alliance forces will rally behind them. So, it’s crucial for the APC to elect the Leader that would bring victory. Just bring gold and nothing else. God bless Chief Sam Sumana, the APC leader and the APC party. Amen and Amen. Father God.

  2. Here we go again – The bearer of bad news like Finance Minster J Saffa always remind me of frightening sudden noises caused by severe thunderstorms accompanied by rapid streaks of lightning skipping over dark clouds as they continue zipping like bullets across the skies. Folk’s,the good news worth celebrating is that our Sierra Leone will continue to exist after these SLPP ignoramuses are long gone to a hellish place of no mercy or return where all of them belong. Listen,for JJ ‘ The Hangman’ to have the audacity to stupidly utter that even three Finance Ministers after him will never be able to fix our economy for the better settles all doubts that have been raised by his critics about how delusional and out of touch with reality this SLPP thief has already become.

    And let us not forget that this SLPP criminal is no common street thief because an ordinary thief steals a thing that can be replaced like a wallet or a piece of jewellery but JJ Saffa is a heartless executioner that has now already ruined millions of innocent lives through the implementation of his half-baked,I’ll advised policies. The three SLPP stooges is what I call them – The President,his Chief Minister and JJ Saffa; A President that is controlled by a Gold digger,being controlled by a Chief Minister and Finance Minster that are also being controlled by their eerie compulsive impulses of Greed for power and riches – Go figure!(lol)

    And while you are letting that sink in consider this also: those five basic principles of Economics that are indispensable tools for economic growth and sustainability have never been put to use since these dummies took over the reins of Power because they have not the slightest clue or idea on how to use them for achieving maximum results.(lol)SLPP do nothing’s on a mission for a old soldier to achieve nothing in the interest of our beloved Sierra Leone!(lmao)

  3. Many thanks to Mahmoud Kamara. The 2023 general elections could well be an occasion where history looks like it will repeat itself minus the electoral system which then prevailed. That was the 1967 general elections which resulted in a deadlock between APC and SLPP until the most patriotic Sierra Leoneans in our history – L.A. M Brewah , Fasuluku Kaisamba and others – declared their support for Siaka Stevens. The electoral process at the time gave the right to the leader whose party won the most parliamentary seats to form the government.

    What may repeat itself is the violence which Mahmoud points out. Bio knows he is in deep political trouble. The violence into which the nation was sucked following the announcement of the results of the 1967 elections could resurface again in 2023 if Bio loses – especially to APC. A loss to NGC may be a little tolerable because an APC victory is synonymous with revenge for all that SLPP would have subjected the former to. Any effort to stop APC from taking over power by all means will be the starting block for violence, and it could take many lives – including innocent ones. In short it will be bloody. The only guard against this probability would be to vote NGC in.

    • He has been rigging for the slpp since 1996 which is what put him there now.

  4. “A humble life dedicated to great purpose becomes great”. From the track record of my president, your president, our president Dr. Julius Maada Bio, it tells you that his stewardship to people and power has made him great. I want you to note that. Indeed he is a great thinker, trusted friend, fair and firm in what he believes is of national interest. Today, people may wonder why this leader seems to be visiting the poorest of the poor regions in Sierra Leone? Why is he not focusing his attention to the city centers, especially the capital city? The answer is simple. Due to centralization, people living in the most disadvantaged areas suffered the worst since independence. When it comes to elections, it doesn’t matter your accreditation or position you hold, it is still one voting right you have as well as that person living in the interior.

    So it’s high time for our leaders to start thinking about these disparities and create a national inclusion platform just as our right thinking president is doing. He himself believes that he will not remain to be a president for more than the constitution term limits, but the development he has taken to these places will live a lifetime. Thank you sir for the great work you are doing. People believe in what you say and do; that is why you are called a “talk and do president”. With regards the playbook analysis of my learned friend, the facts presented in your article cannot be denied, but can be disputed. Let’s go through it methodically:

    He has rolled out loan scheme to Sierra Leoneans;Issued free Le1,300,000 (one million three hundred thousand Leones) to thousands of Sierra Leoneans; paying tuition fees for thousands of Sierra Leonean children; Increased employment facility; Increased salaries; Fighting corruption to save the citizens money and more. So with all these efforts made you call it as causing economic hardship on citizens? When last did this government arrest and prosecute people for not paying their local taxes? Did it not happen in the past administration of Dr. Ernest Koroma. Check points were mounted from districts to districts yet no one commented on that because we all thought it was fair for people to pay their taxes. The need for mid term census is a welcome idea, because I have the strong conviction that statistics had no credible data of the past census conducted.

  5. Gentlemen – There was once a young wolf that was taking a happy stroll one lovely evening that came across an old resentful Grey wolf “Playing the Victim”,mindlessly ransacking an unprotected poultry barn where only grain-fed chickens were raised and kept for commercial purposes. When it was all over the Old Grey wolf was able to escape with five chickens grabbed by their necks in his huge vicious jaws. The young wolf hurried after him as he made away towards the woods in admiration and said to him;” Forty brazen thieves wielding swords cannot compare to you Grey Wolf,what must I do to become as tenacious as you are Sir?” The Grey wolf laughed and replied; “You must be willing to take bold risks and accept the consequences of your actions; Succeed or fail,win or lose either way things turn out its alright,its fine – that should be your mindset at all times. The young wolf thanked him as he went away.

    The next day at dawn,he decided to try the same dubious act not knowing that the owner of the chicken barn he was intent on robbing was a no nonsense marksman that owned a long range precision rifle;(lol) It was early dawn when he raided the barn,grabbed two chickens and bolted away;(lol) The owner heard the noise, peeped out of the window and saw the young wolf making away swiftly with his chickens up a stretch of hill that leads towards the distant woods,pulled out his long range precision rifle,lit an unfinished wrinkled cigarette,looked through the lenses,squinted his right eye, and fired. The bullet zipped away faster than the speed of lightning, it zipped through the young wolf,zipped through the quiet woods leaving him behind,instantly dead in a pool of blood beside the chickens he had stolen.

    Folks,what works for some does not work for others; We know that the criminal in State House is hell bent on replicating the same thieving questionable attitudes of men like Allhasan Quattara and Alpha Conde here in Sierra Leone but what he and his criminal cabal are going to experience is going to be a rude awakening. You can count on it, O wolf in State House dressed in flawless green.(lol)

  6. Whilst we are light years away from the presidential election, the ground work for any would be presidential candidate aspirant for such undertaking should have started to take shape by now. And that goes to all political parties. To get elected or reelected, like in the case of Bio, he has to convince the voting public that he has fulfilled majority of his manifesto promises he made since the last election. Maybe in his case one or two, universal free education, and repealed of the 1965 seditious ACT. the rest like fighting corruption is still up in the air. The other constituency that has enough power in deciding election outcomes, which people hardly talked about is the business community. Both foreign and local owed.

    All they are interested in is security and business friendly environment. Usually they swing behind the presidential candidate they think is most likely or capable of protecting their business interests never mind the interest of the wider population. Once elected, governments tend to listen to their demands more than the ordinary diehard party supporters that paint themselves in party colours, and sometimes unfortunately kill each other. The role of the press and and mass media is also important in deciding election outcome. Obama and Trump are the biggest masters of using social media networks for their political gains.

    Then the biggest elephant in the room no one talks about is the role of international development partners. Especially given the synonymous cold war era tension that presently exists between western countries, and how they are trying to counterbalance the role of China in the African continent. These elections are not a beauty contest. Your vote you cast is just part of a process. It doesn’t translate you get the change you want. There is a lot of special interest that decides an election outcome.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.